{"id":27543,"date":"2025-11-10T20:35:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xjysilicone.com\/?p=27543"},"modified":"2025-11-10T20:35:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:35:10","slug":"silicone-enterprises-how-to-prevent-a-new-round-of-overcapacity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/silicone-enterprises-how-to-prevent-a-new-round-of-overcapacity.html","title":{"rendered":"Como as empresas de silicone podem evitar uma nova rodada de sobrecapacidade?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/span>Innovation breakthrough \u2013 win-win future<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

China\u2019s silicone industry has been developing rapidly in recent years. As of 2023, the capacity of silicone (folded polysiloxane) is 2.571 million tons\/year, and the production is 2.086 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 8.4% respectively; and the consumption is 1.851 million tons, with a year-on-year super-expected growth of 12%. However, in the rapid expansion at the same time, the silicone industry has also appeared in the new capacity construction too fast, advanced technology into the color is not enough, and other issues, the industry is facing a new round of overcapacity risk.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Capacidade excedent\u00e1ria de mon\u00f4meros<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

De acordo com a Alian\u00e7a de Desenvolvimento Verde da Ind\u00fastria do Sil\u00edcio (SAGSI), haver\u00e1 um aumento l\u00edquido de capacidade de polissiloxano equivalente a 430.000 toneladas em 2024. Supondo que a nova capacidade atualmente divulgada entre em produ\u00e7\u00e3o, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o de excedente ficar\u00e1 ainda mais restrita.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

It is expected that in the next five years, with the successive release of new production capacity of domestic silicone enterprises and the elimination of old overseas production capacity, China\u2019s polysiloxane output will maintain a relatively high growth rate.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>O retorno do pre\u00e7o \u00e9 a tend\u00eancia<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

A nova capacidade produtiva \u00e9 gradualmente colocada em opera\u00e7\u00e3o, enquanto a taxa de crescimento do consumo desacelera. Espera-se que o pre\u00e7o do silicone, especialmente dos materiais-primos b\u00e1sicos, retorne a um n\u00edvel razo\u00e1vel.<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

First of all, the growth of the domestic consumption market has shifted from high speed to stable. Since the last round of the financial crisis, China\u2019s large-scale infrastructure construction investment has been gradually retreating, and the consumption structure of the silicone market, which is dominated by infrastructure and traditional manufacturing, is speeding up the adjustment, and the consumption growth rate is declining significantly. According to SAGSI statistics, the average annual growth rate of China\u2019s silicone consumption is about 13.9% from 2019 to 2023, and the average annual growth rate is expected to be about 8.0% from 2024 to 2028.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly, the foreign economic slowdown affects the export market. Affected by the unilateralism of the United States trade and the world economic cycle factors, the world economy showed signs of weakness. 2022 the second half of the year to the first half of 2023, was affected by the decline in the economic growth of the world\u2019s major economies, China\u2019s export market of silicone materials is weak; 2023 the second half of the year, the export market began to repair, the export volume slowly rebound. 2023 the annual volume of China\u2019s polysiloxane imports, exports, and net exports were 8.0%, respectively. In 2023, China\u2019s polysiloxane import volume, export volume, and net export volume were 82,000 tons, 325,000 tons, and 243,000 tons respectively, up 5.2%, down 10.2%, and 14.5% year-on-year respectively.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o mercado local enfrenta riscos regulat\u00f3rios. Os materiais de silicone enfrentar\u00e3o quest\u00f5es regulat\u00f3rias devido \u00e0 dif\u00edcil degrada\u00e7\u00e3o, o que impacta alguns dos mercados consumidores tradicionais do silicone. Por exemplo, no campo de qu\u00edmicos di\u00e1rios, em janeiro de 2018, a Ag\u00eancia Europeia de Produtos Qu\u00edmicos (ECHA) anunciou requisitos para restringir e, ap\u00f3s janeiro de 2020, proibir a venda de anel de silicone com concentra\u00e7\u00e3o D4\/D5 <\/font>\u2265 <\/font>0,1% por peso no mercado da UE para produtos de cuidados pessoais para banho; em janeiro de 2019, o an\u00fancio da ECHA prop\u00f4s restringir ou proibir a concentra\u00e7\u00e3o de D4\/D5\/D6 > 0,1% por peso na aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos de cuidados pessoais e alguns outros produtos no mercado, e tamb\u00e9m recomendou restringir a comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o de cosm\u00e9ticos de enx\u00e1gue contendo concentra\u00e7\u00f5es de D6 >0,1% por peso. Borracha de silicone e outros pol\u00edmeros com res\u00edduos >0,1% por peso de um \u00fanico corpo c\u00edclico tamb\u00e9m enfrentar\u00e3o tais problemas no futuro.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Tecnologia de cor insuficiente<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

De um ponto de vista objetivo, ainda existe uma lacuna entre o n\u00edvel tecnol\u00f3gico dom\u00e9stico do silicone e o n\u00edvel avan\u00e7ado internacional, que se reflete principalmente nos seguintes tr\u00eas aspectos:<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Primeiro, a tecnologia central n\u00e3o foi dominada sistematicamente. Tomando a s\u00edntese de mon\u00f4mero como exemplo, a seletividade m\u00e9dia da capacidade total de s\u00edntese de mon\u00f4mero (incluindo alta ebuli\u00e7\u00e3o) na China \u00e9 de cerca de 80%, que \u00e9 5~10 pontos percentuais menor que a das multinacionais; a taxa m\u00e9dia de convers\u00e3o unidirecional de clorometano \u00e9 de 35%, que \u00e9 20~35 pontos percentuais menor que a das multinacionais. Al\u00e9m disso, os <\/font>\u201c<\/font>tr\u00eas res\u00edduos<\/font>\u201d <\/font>E subprodutos de baixo valor n\u00e3o podem ser tratados de forma estrita e adequada, faltando meios para controlar e lidar com as principais impurezas nos produtos.<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly, the gap between energy and material consumption is large, and the level of safety and environmental protection is not high. China\u2019s comprehensive energy consumption of tons of siloxane is the world\u2019s leading level of 50% to 100% higher, with the average material consumption of 5% to 10% higher, and the corresponding <\/font>\u201c<\/font>tr\u00eas res\u00edduos<\/font>\u201d <\/font>gerou uma m\u00e9dia de uma vez maior.<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Terceiro, o custo integral varia. Segundo c\u00e1lculos da SAGSI, sob o pressuposto de garantir seguran\u00e7a e aumentar o investimento em prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental e governan\u00e7a, cerca de 20% da capacidade dom\u00e9stica atual tem custo de f\u00e1brica de siloxano (excluindo deprecia\u00e7\u00e3o e tr\u00eas despesas) compar\u00e1vel ao de multinacionais em aproximadamente 11 yuan\/kg; cerca de 30% tem custo de f\u00e1brica de siloxano entre 12-15 yuan\/kg, sendo o custo do restante da capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o geralmente superior.<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

De acordo com o modelo de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de capacidade e custo de mercado, com a libera\u00e7\u00e3o gradual de nova capacidade produtiva, o pre\u00e7o do anel de siloxano deve se manter por muito tempo em RMB 12.000~16.000\/ton, abaixo da linha de custo de parte consider\u00e1vel da nova capacidade instalada e mesmo da capacidade estabelecida. Projetos novos sem fontes tecnol\u00f3gicas e com car\u00eancia de infraestrutura de apoio enfrentar\u00e3o grandes riscos de investimento.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Esfor\u00e7os devem ser feitos em quatro \u00e1reas<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

Devido aos problemas atuais da ind\u00fastria, especialistas do setor sugerem a necessidade de prevenir e resolver nova duplica\u00e7\u00e3o de constru\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo n\u00edvel na ind\u00fastria de mon\u00f4meros de silicone, direcionando novos investimentos sociais para \u00e1reas inovadoras de alta tecnologia com capacidade de mercado e perspectivas de desenvolvimento ou para segmentos cr\u00edticos com demanda urgente no mercado dom\u00e9stico, promovendo o desenvolvimento de alta qualidade do setor.<\/font> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Primeiro, continuar a promover a reforma do lado da oferta da ind\u00fastria do silicone, considerando o risco de investimento em projetos sem tecnologia pr\u00f3pria ou sem fontes tecnol\u00f3gicas avan\u00e7adas, cujo in\u00edcio deve ser cauteloso;<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Segundo, tomar grandes empresas integradas como atores principais, com foco em aplica\u00e7\u00f5es downstream de alto valor agregado, para intensificar o desenvolvimento de mat\u00e9rias-primas especiais importantes e produtos downstream de ponta;<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Third, pay attention to the protection of intellectual property rights, intellectual property rights infringement seriously prosecuted in accordance with the law, and effectively safeguard and enhance the industry\u2019s innovation enthusiasm;<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Quarto, promover a internacionaliza\u00e7\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria, atrav\u00e9s da conex\u00e3o <\/font>\u201c<\/font>Cintur\u00e3o e Rota<\/font>\u201d <\/font>iniciativa para prevenir e resolver o risco de um novo ciclo de excesso na ind\u00fastria de silicone.<\/font><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Innovation breakthrough \u2013 win-win future China\u2019s silicone industry has been developing rapidly in recent years. As of 2023, the capacity of silicone (folded polysiloxane) is 2.571 million tons\/year, and the production is 2.086 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 8.4% respectively; and the consumption is 1.851 million tons, with a year-on-year super-expected\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":27544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[616],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-company-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27543"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27543\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.xjysilicone.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}